Containment measures to prevent the pandemic from spreading will continue into 2021, while the true turning point is expected to be achieved with a vaccine.
Confinement is one of the measures that the Covid-19 outbreak has managed to contain to avoid saturation of health systems and to be able to provide medical care to those who need it.
Harvard University has concluded through computer simulations with data from the US and other types of coronavirus, that Covid-19 will be a seasonal disease that will harden in the cold months and that the old “ normality ”will not arrive for a year and a half.
The real turning point will be the arrival of treatments, but especially the vaccine, which will immunize the population without the devastating effects that this disease is now causing.
"We have found that a single period of social distancing is probably insufficient to keep the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 within the limits of the health system in the United States", has assured Stephen Kissler, director of the investigation. "The so-called ‘new normal’ may not disappear until 2022“
Kissler considers that it will not be possible to speak of returning to normality as we knew it until the implementation of the much sought-after vaccine, since otherwise it would be exposing oneself to a risk of very dangerous consequences: "What seems to be necessary, in the absence of treatments, is to apply intermittent periods of social distancing".
The question of immunity and other measures
The doubt, now, is in the model to follow until the arrival of the vaccine. Permanent social distancing has proven effective in preventing infections, but it slows down group immunity. On the other hand, if you bet everything on that immunity, the results would be catastrophic. For example, in Spain, with 5% immunized, there are around 30,000 deaths, according to data from the Ministry of Health.
The immunization period also matters, which could be up to a year and could re-expose the person to the infection. "Even in the face of an apparent elimination of the virus, measures against SARS-CoV-2 should be maintained, since it is possible that it will appear again until 2024“Says the writing.
Regardless of the scenarios and the ways in which to act against the coronavirus, the researchers are clear that it is highly unlikely that this pathogen will disappear after this first wave. The vaccine, in this case, will be the only definitive weapon against the pandemic.